Research
Every idea tested, including the ones that failed.
- Can you beat the S&P 500 by owning more of it at the right moments? No. The best rule, owning twice as much after sharp short drops, looked great on 1994–2021, failed badly on 1962–1992, and did no better than holding in five…
- Should you buy a stock after a big jump, a breakout or insider buying? No. A month after a big jump or a breakout, the stock had on average done slightly worse than similar stocks, once trading costs were paid. After insiders…
- A method that won 97% of its trades made 7.5% a year. Holding the same stocks made 16.6%. Buying good companies after a drop and selling each once a little up won 92–98% of trades in 2015–2021, but made 7.5–12.3% a year. Holding the same companies…
- A 3x S&P 500 fund with a 200-day trend rule made 22.6% a year from 1994 to 2021. Since 2022, about 1% a year. On 1994–2021 the rule more than doubled the S&P 500's yearly return. On 2022–2026, years it had never seen, it made about 1% a year against 12%, and fell 61%…
- A list of the most profitable US companies beat the S&P 500 by 4 points a year for seven years. Then it trailed by 8 a year. The 50 large US companies with the most gross profit for their assets made 19.6% a year in 2015–2021 against 15.3%. On 2022–Oct 2026, kept aside, 3.8% against…
- I tested 22 ways to time the S&P 500 from 1994. Waiting for a dip lost every time. Every wait-for-a-dip rule made less than buying and holding, and the deeper the dip, the worse. Stepping aside in downtrends cut the worst falls, but its…
- Does buying strong stocks after a short dip beat holding the S&P 500? No. A carefully built swing-trading system made about 1.5% a year from 2015 to 2021, while simply holding the S&P 500 made 14.9%. Its picks were no better…
- I built a stock-scoring tool for swing trading. Did it work? No. Over three years and about 26,000 daily calls on 36 big US stocks, the stocks it scored highly did no better over the next week than the ones it scored…